At OnRe, we spend less time debating what could happen in crypto and more time watching where capital is already moving. Over the next 12 to 18 months, the market doesn’t need new narratives. It needs proof it can hold up.
This is how we see 2026 taking shape.
RWAs Become the Foundation, Not the Experiment
Tokenized real-world assets continue to scale, but the real shift is that they stop being treated as a category and start functioning as infrastructure.
Tokenized treasuries, credit, structured funds, and reinsurance-linked assets are becoming core building blocks for onchain portfolios. They anchor yield expectations and give DeFi something it has never really had: a cash-flow-backed base layer.
As more capital flows into risk-managed funds and vault structures, the market moves away from incentive-driven growth and toward durability. That’s what allows DeFi to scale without becoming more fragile.
The tension is around tokens. As revenue-generating, capital-facing businesses grow, governance and utility tokens are forced to earn their place. Tokens tied to allocation, risk decisions, and real economic control matter. Tokens that exist purely for narrative don’t.
Regulatory Clarity Changes How Products are Built
Progress on US regulatory frameworks, particularly around asset classification, matters far beyond the US. Even partial clarity sets standards that shape how capital-facing products are structured globally.
This isn’t about slowing innovation. It’s about normalization. Products built with enforceability, compliance, and long-term capital in mind are easier to distribute and easier to scale. Teams that built for speculation now face hard choices.
Stablecoins Quietly Become Financial Plumbing
Stablecoins are increasingly used as working capital. Settlement, collateral movement, and treasury management are moving onchain because it’s simply more efficient.
As more capital lives onchain, allocators look for liquid, predictable, yield-bearing instruments. That pushes demand toward real-world cash flows and away from artificial yield. The result is a larger, steadier capital base across DeFi.
Climate Risk Drives Real Reinsurance Demand
Climate-related losses continue to rise, particularly in agriculture and emerging markets where traditional capacity is constrained.
That creates growing demand for faster, more flexible risk transfer. Tech-first and onchain reinsurance models are well positioned here, not because they replace incumbents overnight, but because they improve how risk is priced, pooled, and accessed where legacy models struggle.
Reinsurance Changes Slowly, Capital Moves First
Reinsurance remains operationally complex and inefficient, and that won’t change in a single cycle. What does change is where capital comes from and how it gets deployed.
We’re seeing more capital from internet-native markets, AI-driven platforms, and technology companies partnering with onchain reinsurers. Underwriting efficiency, automation, and lower expense ratios become real competitive advantages. Firms that invest in technology pull ahead over time. Others fall behind gradually.
Distribution is the long-term shift. Onchain rails make reinsurance exposure easier to access and easier to scale, even as traditional underwriting expertise remains essential.
What we Expect to Fade, Scale, and Create Tension
Fades: incentive-only DeFi yields, narrative-driven RWAs, tokens without economic purpose
Scales: risk-managed tokenized funds, stablecoin-based capital stacks, efficient reinsurance platforms
Tension: tokens versus revenue, openness versus compliance, legacy processes versus tech-first capital
From our perspective, 2026 isn’t about disruption for its own sake. It’s about building systems that capital trusts enough to stay. That’s where the real opportunity is.
These messages are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or digital assets.
